Tag: Investment strategy

  • Warren Buffett gives his most expansive explanation for why he doesn’t believe in bitcoin

    Warren Buffett gives his most expansive explanation for why he doesn’t believe in bitcoin

    2022-04-30

    Bitcoin has steadily been gaining acceptance from the traditional finance and investment world in recent years but Warren Buffett is sticking to his skeptical stance on bitcoin.

    He said at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder meeting Saturday that it’s not a productive asset and it doesn’t produce anything tangible. Despite a shift in public perception about the cryptocurrency, Buffett still wouldn’t buy it.

    “Whether it goes up or down in the next year, or five or 10 years, I don’t know. But the one thing I’m pretty sure of is that it doesn’t produce anything,” Buffett said. “It’s got a magic to it and people have attached magics to lots of things.”

    Even bitcoin enthusiasts tend to regard the cryptocurrency as a passive asset that investors buy and hold and hope to see increase in price over a long period. Buffet himself commented that there’s “nobody” that’s short on bitcoin, everyone is a long-term holder.

    For more sophisticated crypto investors, some coins offer a way for them to use their crypto productively — either through lending, or as collateral — to create additional portfolio benefits. However, they’re still young, highly speculative and haven’t broken into the mainstream like bitcoin.

    Buffett elaborated on why he doesn’t see value in bitcoin, comparing it to things that generate other types of value.

    “If you said… for a 1% interest in all the farmland in the United States, pay our group $25 billion, I’ll write you a check this afternoon,” Buffett said. “[For] $25 billion I now own 1% of the farmland. [If] you offer me 1% of all the apartment houses in the country and you want another $25 billion, I’ll write you a check, it’s very simple. Now if you told me you own all of the bitcoin in the world and you offered it to me for $25 I wouldn’t take it because what would I do with it? I’d have to sell it back to you one way or another. It isn’t going to do anything. The apartments are going to produce rent and the farms are going to produce food.”

    Investors for years have been puzzled over how to value bitcoin in part because of its potential to serve different functions. In Western markets it has been established as an investment asset, particularly in the past year as rates and inflation have been on the rise. In other markets, people still see enormous potential for its use as digital cash.

    “Assets, to have value, have to deliver something to somebody. And there’s only one currency that’s accepted. You can come up with all kinds of things — we can put up Berkshire coins… but in the end, this is money,” he said, holding up a $20 bill. “And there’s no reason in the world why the United States government… is going to let Berkshire money replace theirs.”

    Both Buffett and Charlie Munger have made hostile comments toward bitcoin in the past. Most famously, Buffett said bitcoin is “probably rat poison squared.” Munger doubled down on that sentiment Saturday.

    “In my life, I try and avoid things that are stupid and evil and make me look bad in comparison to somebody else – and bitcoin does all three,” Munger said. “In the first place, it’s stupid because it’s still likely to go to zero. It’s evil because it undermines the Federal Reserve System… and third, it makes us look foolish compared to the Communist leader in China. He was smart enough to ban bitcoin in China.”

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  • Why the taper will be good for the stock market, according to history

    Why the taper will be good for the stock market, according to history

    2021-11-07 07:00:40

    The Fed is tapering, and unlike the central bank’s 2013 reduction in monthly purchases of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities, the stock market took it in stride. Or did it? When then-Fed chair Ben Bernanke surprised the market in 2013 with an indication the Fed would end its bond buying, stocks declined by about just as much as the pullback that occurred earlier this fall in what had seemed like an unstoppable market already prepared for the Fed taper. And for all the memories of the “taper tantrum,” the market in 2013-2014 came back just as the market has come back now, making up the pullback loss in October and continuing onto new records this month for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite.

    What’s next for stocks? If the history of the taper, and the much longer 60-year history of market sentiment is the judge, there are more gains to come, potentially across all sectors, styles and sizes of equities in the S&P 500 and S&P Composite 1500 Index, according to CFRA Research data.

    After Bernanke’s taper comments in May 2013, stocks dove by 5.8% in the next month — which in the technical definition of a market pullback, between 5% to 10%, is on the smaller side of the selling — and for the rest of that year, the market was up 17.5%.

    “After a very minor pullback known as the ‘taper tantrum’ stocks took off,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research. “Above average market returns across all styles, sectors and up to 80% of all sub-industries.”

    That goes for not only the market rebound after the “tantrum” but the 10-month period that included the actual Fed tapering activity.

    In the 10-month tapering period, from mid-December 2013 to the end of October 2014, the S&P 500 rose 11.5%, according to CFRA Research. The likely reasoning, Stovall says, is that investors concluded if the economy was strong enough to withstand the removal of supportive bond-buying activity, it was healthy enough to continue to expand on its own.

    Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell leaves a meeting in the office of Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., in Hart Building on Wednesday, October 6, 2021.

    Tom Williams | CQ-Roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images

    “Don’t take anyone else’s word. There was a tantrum, the S&P 500 fell less than 6% in that one-month period, but people make it sound as if there was a near-bear market,” Stovall said. “It ended up being barely a pullback.”

    And that taper ticker tape is part of what leads Stovall to conclude that the 5.2% pullback in September of this year will end up being like so many market selloffs in the past — breakeven reached quickly, “and then history kicks in,” he said.

    In 60 instances since World War II when stocks experienced a pullback, the market continued to rise in the next calendar month and did so by an average of 3.3% — and was higher 92% of time. In this case, that would be November (October was the “back to breakeven” month). So the hot start to this month should not be a surprise as the average return, according to history, is 3.3% in those calendar months that follow a pullback-to-breakeven cycle.

    Pullbacks are normal for stocks, and common during extended bull markets. In fact, CFRA data shows that the market has gained an average of 8.4% over the next 100 calendar days after those recovery months. This time around, that would mean rallying into the end of January. But history says investors should be prepared for another bout of volatility after that. Stocks have tended to slip into a new decline of 5% or more, according to S&P 500 history, which in this cycle would put the pullback in February, historically (and notably) the second-worst month of the year for stocks.

    Beware the market tides of February

    And there’s something else occurring in February that could cause some market volatility — that’s when Jerome Powell’s appointment as Fed chair needs to be renewed or a new Fed chair chosen. The Fed is not supposed to be a political animal, but with the mid-term elections ahead and fears that a sudden change in interest rate policy could sink stocks and even force a recession, it would logically make sense for President Biden to keep a chair in the central bank’s lead who has clearly messaged his patience with the current inflationary period.

    Even though history shows the Fed has been willing to raise rates in the three months leading up to mid-terms and presidential elections, “I think they would prefer to wait,” Stovall said. “The Fed wants to take its time to start raising rates to avoid looking political.”

    The market isn’t convinced yet. The CME Fed Watch forecast still sees the possibility of rate hikes beginning as early as Q3 next year.

    Inflation, and the battle between the Fed and investors over inflation’s trajectory, will remain the likely deciding factor driving market sentiment. Powell reiterated this week after the Fed’s FOMC meeting that he is not in a hurry to raise rates and continues to view the inflation as transitory, and likely to ease once Covid-specific factors including supply chain bottlenecks work themselves out, though he said that could last “well into next year.”

    Many investors, from the billionaire class to the affluent do-it-yourself investor set, don’t agree.

    CFRA expects the first quarter-point rate hike to occur in the fourth quarter of 2022 and proceed into 2023 at a measured pace, but before then, inflation is going to keep going higher. The headline CPI is expected to rise year over year from 1.2% in Q4 2020 to the 6% in Q4 2021. The tapering is expected to conclude before mid-year 2022, but the Fed also has said that the tapering timeline in no way implies that it will begin raising short-term interest rates once the bond buying is over.

    “In other words, the Fed has begun to take its foot off the gas, but is not ready to start to tap on the brakes,” Stovall said.

    Inflation is what could change that stance. The current fourth quarter CPI forecast of 6% is supposed to be the peak inflation reading. But what if it isn’t?

    If the Fed still insists on holding off on rate hikes, it may move quicker on the taper. “I think if we end up with higher and longer inflation, then the implication is the Fed might have to accelerate the timetable in terms of when and by how much they taper right,” Stovall said.

    Currently, the plan is for “a simple straight line,” he said — $10 billion a month in Treasurys and $5 billion in mortgage-backed securities, concluding by the end of May.

    If the inflation data continues to come in hotter than expected next year, though, “then the worry is the Fed will have to ramp up the pace of the taper itself, and then that increases the likelihood of the Fed raising rates and doing so earlier than anticipated,” Stovall said.

    So while the historic market data on the taper and six decades of market history breeds some technical confidence, “interest rates and inflation remain the biggest potential pullback catalyst,” Stovall said.

    CFRA is forecasting that inflation will end up being below 3%, down to 2.5%, by this time next year after a peak of 5.9% in the headline number this quarter. That’s the “transitory” argument that Fed chair Powell has stuck to his guns on, and Stovall said the economists CFRA relies on believe he is correct, but for stocks, “it just depends on the duration of transitory.”

    “If we do see inflation remain stubbornly high, or go even higher into Q1, then that will spook the market,” he said.

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  • Spot bitcoin ETF unlikely until at least mid-2022: Valkyrie Funds CIO

    Spot bitcoin ETF unlikely until at least mid-2022: Valkyrie Funds CIO

    2021-10-28 13:23:08

    An exchange-traded fund backed by physical bitcoin is still far off, says the man behind the second-ever bitcoin futures ETF.

    The Valkyrie Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BTF), an actively managed product that holds a mix of front-month bitcoin futures contracts, Treasurys, corporate bonds and cash, followed in ProShares’ footsteps last week. Valkyrie’s ETF launch attracted $10 million in the first 5 minutes of trading.

    Unfortunately for bitcoin ETF hopefuls, these debuts don’t necessarily bring the Securities and Exchange Commission any closer to approving ETFs based on spot bitcoin, Valkyrie Funds chief investment officer Steven McClurg told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” on Monday.

    “I don’t think we see a bitcoin spot ETF until at least middle of next year,” McClurg said. “The staff is still trying to get their heads around what exactly is going on with these exchanges. They’re trying to put a little bit more regulatory structure around them before they … move forward with this.”

    More than a dozen firms have filed for ETFs tracking bitcoin itself, but none have received SEC approval due to regulatory concerns including issues around custody. However, the SEC’s first hard deadline is approaching: It must approve or deny VanEck’s proposal for a physical bitcoin ETF by Nov. 14.

    In the meantime, some are jumping on the futures bandwagon, with VanEck slated to be next to market.

    Though BTF didn’t make as big of a splash as ProShares’ billion-dollar debut, Valkyrie’s strategy could pay off in the long run, McClurg said.

    “We’re OK with having a fraction of what ProShares has. ProShares is a goliath. We’re a brand-new issuer, McClurg said. “We also right now care more about the spread.”

    “We’ve been trading within a penny out there,” he said. “We also care about tracking error. Those are things that are really going to matter in the long run and if we can keep those things really tight in the first few weeks, then I think that we’re really going to be the long-term play here.”

    BTF gained more than 4% on Thursday. The ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) climbed nearly 4%.

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  • David Tepper doesn’t think stocks are a great investment here, but says it all depends on rates

    David Tepper doesn’t think stocks are a great investment here, but says it all depends on rates

    2021-10-22 09:06:50

    Hedge fund manager David Tepper has turned somewhat bearish on the stock market, citing uncertainties around interest rates and inflation.

    “I don’t think it’s a great investment right here,” Tepper said Friday on CNBC’s “Halftime Report.” “I just don’t know how interest rates are going to behave next year… I don’t think there’s any great asset classes right now… I don’t love stocks. I don’t love bonds. I don’t love junk bonds.”

    The Federal Reserve has been keeping its benchmark short-term interest rate anchored near zero since the start of the pandemic. In recent weeks, officials have indicated they are ready to start tapering the monthly asset purchases, possibly starting in November.

    Many believe that rising inflation, which is running at a 30-year high, could put pressure on the central bank to pull back some of the ultra-easy monetary policy soon. Traders have upped their bets that the Fed will move faster than anticipated on rate hikes, with market pricing implying a first rate increase coming in September 2022, according to the CME’s FedWatch tracker.

    The founder of Appaloosa Management, whose comments have been known to move markets, said his hedge fund has been “probably too conservative” this year but has done OK because of its bets on commodities and oil.

    “We continued to keep that exposure relatively low but keep investing, I think stay invested in the stock market to some extent, but don’t have your highest concentration you’ve ever had,” Tepper said.

    Tepper stressed, though, that it’s nowhere near the time to short the stock market, and he still believes equities make a great long-term investment that everyone should own in their portfolio.

    The hedge fund manager said if bond yields stay stable after the Fed moves to taper its bond-buying program, stocks could see a relief rally.

    “If we are going to sit here with 1.60% [on the 10-year Treasury yield] after the Fed announces tapering, then you could get a rally. There might be a trading rally. You might get 5% to 10% up. I’ll go in and get out,” Tepper said.

    The billionaire investor has made a number of prescient calls recently, including foreseeing the market collapse due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Back in February 2020 before the S&P 500 tumbled into a bear market, he warned that the virus could be a game changer for markets and “certainly ruined the environment” for stocks.

    In March this year, Tepper turned bullish on the market, saying it’s very difficult to be bearish on stocks. The S&P 500 enjoyed seven positive months in a row from February to August, The benchmark is up more than 20%, hitting a fresh all-time high Friday.

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  • Tesla, Elon Musk are trailing on one trendy stock market metric

    Tesla, Elon Musk are trailing on one trendy stock market metric

    2021-10-20 09:10:56

    Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party leader Armin Laschet visit the construction site of Tesla’s Gigafactory in Gruenheide near Berlin, Germany, August 13, 2021.

    Patrick Pleul | Reuters

    Tesla CEO Elon Musk has said the fundamental good the electric car maker does will be measured in the acceleration of the world to sustainable energy.

    Tesla’s role in the auto industry’s move to electrification is undeniable. Many major automakers are now investing billions in EV and battery manufacturing, and consumer interest in EVs continues to grow. While a Pew Research Center survey this summer found only 7% of U.S. adults currently had an electric or hybrid vehicle, 39% said they were considering an electric vehicle to be the next car they bought. 

    “One of the many things he did is he pushed the industry toward taking EV seriously,” former Ford CEO Mark Fields said of Musk.

    Tesla didn’t surpass 1% share of new car sales until 2018, but during the first half of 2021, Tesla’s share of the all-electric segment of the auto market stood at about two-thirds.

    “Profitability as a pure EV maker is an accomplishment in and of itself,” said Driss Lembachar, manager of transportation and infrastructure research at Morningstar’s Sustainalytics.

    Tesla‘s stock price, now near-$900, and its rise to a near-$1 trillion company, shows that investors have been rewarded for sticking with a company that five years ago traded under $50 amid constant reporting on financial struggles.

    But for ESG analysts including Lembachar, “There is some room for improvement.”

    Beyond Tesla earnings and sales



    As Tesla gets set to report its latest earnings on Wednesday and demand for its EVs show continued growth, its balance sheet becomes less volatile, and it ramps up manufacturing around the globe — including operations in Europe and China — its success is also an indication that Tesla has passed beyond its roots as a California start-up. It’s becoming a mature automaker. That is one reason ESG experts are watching closely to see how Musk’s company evolves in relation to investor concerns about environmental, social and governance issues.

    Yana Kakar, global managing partner emeritus at Dalberg, said when the ESG debate is boiled down to a choice between whether the product a company produces is good, such as a Tesla EV, or the way it produces the product is good, that is a mistake.

    “That’s a false dichotomy,” she said. “There is no necessary tradeoff. It is not a zero-sum game.”

    How a company produces its products can be a reflection of the same values in the products it creates, and “that is entirely achievable,” Kakar said. 

    This debate over Tesla has a parallel to the rise of Silicon Valley companies that are “revolutionizing” industries and, as a result, have to keep their focus on that primary goal and not ESG.

    “That attitude has been particularly prevalent in Silicon Valley,” said Jaakko Kooroshy, head of sustainable investment research at FTSE Russell. “But investors have come around to the view that a company can continue ‘saving the world’ and also have decent sustainability disclosures, and those disclosures do matter in the context of the company trying to save the world.” He added, “The line from Tesla for a very long time was ‘we are busy here saving the world so who cares about our emissions disclosures and corporate governance mechanisms.”

    Tesla shareholders are pressing company on ESG



    The recent Tesla annual shareholder meeting showed how investor pressure is being applied to the company, with a measure for diversity, equity and inclusion reporting approved by shareholders over management objections. The vote came shortly after a legal case in which a former Tesla contract worker sued over a hostile work environment and was awarded $137 million.

    ESG experts say it is a sign that Tesla shareholders are making their voices heard, but it will be another year before ESG experts and shareholders can assess any changes made by Tesla in response to the shareholder measure. Shareholder measures are non-binding, and though corporate management often enacts changes in response to shareholder wins, it is not always with the scope or comprehensiveness that shareholders expected.

    To date, in spite of all of the “good” the company is doing related to climate change, Tesla has not had the best ESG track record.

    Paul Tudor Jones’ ESG firm JUST Capital ranks Tesla among the bottom 10% of all companies on ESG — its ESG methodology is weighted more heavily to broad social issues than climate specifically.

    FTSE Russell has Tesla ranked last among carmakers globally on ESG issues.

    Tesla did not respond to a request for comment on its ESG philosophy.

    Environment and climate

    ESG rating agencies, in the early days of the industry, don’t yet agree on how to assess Tesla even on the “E” of environment with which it is synonymous.

    Lembachar said on the environmental pillar in ESG, “They are one of the best … it goes without saying they produce only cars without emissions, and they have been credited for that.”

    But in 2018, FTSE Russell gave Tesla a “zero” on environment because even though its revenue sources are green and its cars are non-emitting, the company didn’t disclose its own operational emissions.

    Historically, Tesla did not provide transparency in terms of reporting its Scope 1 and Scope 2 carbon emissions, water use, or waste management. But Tesla has improved as investors pressed for more information and it has started publishing more corporate disclosures in recent years, said Kooroshy, which has led to an improvement in Tesla’s environmental ranking in the FTSE Russell ESG analysis.

    How Tesla deals with the waste it generates and its water usage, particularly as it is starting to scale around the world and provide millions of vehicles, does matter, he said. There are many ways to produce EVs, some cleaner and some more problematic, and supply chains and sourcing of raw materials such as cobalt, which goes into batteries, and human rights and labor issues in regions where minerals are sourced, need to be considered by investors as risk factors.

    “What is clear is that Tesla has made some improvements, but compared to many of its peers in the auto industry, its environmental reporting is still fairly rudimentary,” Kooroshy said. “They are conscious of, and made commitments to disclose more data points in future, and as they do, when they do, we will see it reflected in those ratings.” 

    Labor


    On balance, social and governance issues remain the major hurdles for Tesla. MCSI places Tesla above average in its rankings, but not as an ESG leader.

    “If you look at labor management or product safety quality, we see some issues there,” said Arne Klug, vice president of ESG research at MSCI. “We couldn’t say that the company’s programs, in terms of labor management, or product safety, quality, are really aligned with its growth strategy based on our assessment.”

    In March, the National Labor Relations Board ruled that Tesla violated federal labor laws while United Auto Workers and other unions tried to organize at its original plant in Fremont, California. The NLRB also found Tesla guilty of “coercively interrogating” three employees over unionizing activities, illegally firing another and disciplining another.

    For JUST Capital, worker issues are one of the primary reasons Tesla gets “tripped” up in its rankings, Whittaker said. How a company supports local communities, what is it doing on diversity, and what it is doing on fair pay and worker issues, are all issues that JUST weighs more heavily than climate alone in its overall ESG rankings because Whittaker said, “the public weighs them highly.”

    The labor issues will pose a material risk to Tesla as it expands around the world, Lembachar said, as they do for any company with global operations where a confrontation with a labor force at one site can increase the risk of more general strikes.

    “Workforce issues can have more of an effect now that the company is getting out of this start-up stage and expanding around the world and in Europe, where there is a really strong union tradition,” he said. “The company must be prepared for labor-related risks and, according to us, must have stronger labor-related programs prepared to tackle issues related to the expansion of its workforce engine around the world.”

    Autopilot as an ESG issue



    Tesla is facing investigations from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration regarding Autopilot, the automated driving technology currently in Tesla’s Models 3, S, X and Y in 2021.

    While it may at first not seem obvious how self-driving is an ESG issue, it in fact falls within traditional categories that date all the way back to the days of Ralph Nader and “unsafe at any speed”: product safety and passenger safety.

    Lembachar said Tesla’s full self-driving (FSD) is something his firm receives a lot of questions about as an ESG scoring metric, but he says it is simple: “Anything related to passenger safety is product governance and falls under the ‘Social’ pillar. Everything related to recalls, accidents, defects, responsibility of company is product governance.”

    He was quick to point out that if self-driving works it may ultimately cut down on accidents by as much as 90%, and Tesla is potentially far ahead of competitors with the technology. But in a period of time when it is being scrutinized as the cause of accidents and fatalities, self-driving remains a product governance negative, and that metric has a heavy weighting for the auto industry. That hits other companies, too, such as GM after its recent recall on electric cars due to battery fire risk. And Lembacher said these issues have a material cost: for GM, more than $1 billion in the case of the recalls. “That is a very material issue,” he said.

    Corporate governance and Tesla’ ESG future



    Even though tweets may seem ephemeral, Musk’s confrontation with the Securities and Exchange Commission over controversial tweets can negatively impact the company’s corporate governance score.

    “In terms of corporate governance, we see the confrontation between Musk and the SEC as problematic,” Lembacher said. “Tweets are problematic when they change the share price and that can be harmful for shareholders … and that’s why the SEC has been flagging it. There is a risk that the regulator at some point will sanction the company and since we are running a risk rating product, we have to flag this issue.”

    Questions also remain about the company’s acquisition of SolarCity, which was controlled by Musk’s cousins (a legal case is ongoing brought by shareholders).

    The corporate governance issues raise a bigger question about Musk’s impact on ESG ratings.

    “It is not enough to say the company is being run by a ‘genius’ and as a result, ‘please don’t ask us too many questions,” Kooroshy said. “There is no doubt about the achievements of this company, particularly about accelerating the transition to sustainable energy. This is stuff for the history books, but at the end of the day, for investors trying to understand how much of a portfolio to invest in this company … not enough, he said. “It’s still not a free pass. … Making these disclosures doesn’t stop them from innovating.”

    Kakar said Tesla’s mission of accelerating the transition to sustainable energy, and its focus on that as an argument in its defense, is implicitly a relative statement comparing itself to other automakers, and that is where the false tradeoff comes in. “It is terrific they are making EVs … but relative to the next guy is not the important point, and doesn’t obfuscate responsibility.” 

    Many ESG investors and ESG investment products today accentuate the “E” and climate specifically. “That’s where the action is at and investors have seen it as a good story, and if you think about environmental performance and climate as the big opportunities, you see Tesla as a big solution and will be attracted to it,” Whittaker said.

    But as any company grows in scope and scale, the range of issues they have to contend with changes and investors will ask more about the “how” behind the growing business. And ESG experts stress that any rating they provide isn’t a buy or sell rating on a company, but a risk rating to be factored into an investor’s broader analysis.

    “That’s what is going to happen with Tesla as people become more aware of the social risk of how it operates,” Whittaker said. “It is bound to become more of an issue for investors and more of an operational risk for the company if it doesn’t perform well … more prominent in the overall calculus of company competitiveness and success.”

    “That is not to say it won’t do well,” he added. “Musk is an incredible entrepreneur and business leader and I am sure if it becomes an issue he thinks will affect the value of the company or brand, he will respond accordingly. I expect it will become more of an issue for the management team to have to deal with.”

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  • First bitcoin futures ETF rises 3% in trading debut on the NYSE

    First bitcoin futures ETF rises 3% in trading debut on the NYSE

    2021-10-19 06:37:06

    Shares of the first U.S. bitcoin-linked exchange-traded fund rose in their trading debut Tuesday.

    The ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF, ticker “BITO,” jumped more than 3% to $41.44. The fund tracks CME bitcoin futures, or contracts speculating on the future price of bitcoin, rather than the crypto itself.

    That means investors in the ETF should expect the price and performance of the shares to differ somewhat from the price of bitcoin itself. This isn’t ideal for existing investors; many of them take a long view on cryptocurrencies and had hoped for an ETF that would track physical bitcoin that investors could buy and hold.

    The price of bitcoin briefly popped Tuesday morning after trading began, jumping 3% to $63,035.04, according to Coin Metrics, nearing its all-time high from April 14 of $64,899. Bitcoin futures gained about 2% as well.

    “The fund seeks to provide capital appreciation primarily through managed exposure to bitcoin futures contracts. The fund does not invest directly in bitcoin,” the ProShares website says of the fund. The fund has an expense ratio of 0.95%.

    ProShares is the eighth-biggest ETF provider by assets, according to ETDB.com. The firm is known for its funds that use leverage to track moves in certain indexes multiplied by a certain amount. ProShares executives rang the opening bell at the NYSE, where the ETF trades.

    The crypto industry has been longing for a bitcoin-related ETF for many years. In about 2017, asset managers began applying to launch spot bitcoin ETFs but their proposals were rejected by the Securities and Exchange Commission, which maintained none were able to prove market resistance to manipulation. The rush of applications for futures-based ETFs came this year shortly after Chairman Gary Gensler took the helm of the agency.

    “What you have here is a product that’s been overseen for four years by the U.S. federal regulator CFTC, and that’s being wrapped inside of something within our jurisdiction called the Investment Company Act of 1940, so we have some ability to bring it inside of investor protection,” Gensler said of the new ETF on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Tuesday. “It’s still a highly speculative asset class and listeners should understand that underneath this, it still has that same aspect of volatility and speculation.”

    Some argue the impact of an ETF, particularly one tied to futures contracts, is lessened by adoption of crypto by companies and fintechs. Investors have many ways to get indirect exposure to bitcoin without actually owning it, through institutional-grade funds, financial apps like PayPal and Square’s CashApp, or crypto-related equities like Coinbase and mining stocks.

    (Sign up now for the CNBC Investing Club to follow Jim Cramer’s every move in the market.)

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  • Jim Cramer warns that the stock market could be ‘toast’ if oil prices keep climbing

    Jim Cramer warns that the stock market could be ‘toast’ if oil prices keep climbing

    2021-10-18 15:54:35

    CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Monday the oil rally could eventually unsettle the stock market.

    “If you want the rest of the stock market to keep climbing, oil needs to stop going higher, otherwise we’re toast,” the “Mad Money” host said, after the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude hit $83.87 on Monday, which is the highest level since October 2014.

    Cramer said that price is “much too high for my taste,” while seeking to draw attention to what he believes is contradictory behavior in the markets.

    “The oil stocks and their fellow travelers make up less than 10% of the S&P 500. When they’re roaring, it causes nothing but trouble for the other 90%,” Cramer said. “Here’s the issue, though. Despite the relentless price increases, oil’s rise … hasn’t impacted the stocks of any of the big energy consumers while it buoys the stocks of the energy producers.”

    For example, Cramer pointed to airlines and other industries related to travel and leisure.

    “These groups … have stocks that have been incredibly strong, especially — and this is really the conundrum — the hotels,” Cramer said. “In fact, if you overlay Marriott’s chart over the chart of any oil stock, they appear almost identical over the last 7 weeks. That makes no sense.”  

    Similarly, Cramer said the stocks of companies in the transportation sector — which should also be sensitive to fuel costs — have been “acting pretty well, too.”

    “Again, that shouldn’t be happening. This is a zero-sum game; when oil wins, the transports lose,” Cramer said.

    Cramer said oil production needs to increase to meet the increased demand during the Covid pandemic recovery. If it doesn’t, he said even higher prices could be in store “and that would be the lose-lose [situation] we’re worried about.”

    He noted that some have predicted oil could touch $100 per barrel, at which point “maybe it prices itself and causes demand destruction.”

    “It would mean oil has strangled the whole economy. It hasn’t happened yet obviously … but it could,” he said.

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  • Strong bank earnings have changed the tone of the stock market

    Strong bank earnings have changed the tone of the stock market

    2021-10-15 16:31:59

    CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Friday he believes the tenor on Wall Street has been altered by the recent slate of major bank earnings, providing rays of optimism following a gloomy few weeks for stocks.

    “The big banks have changed the tone of this entire market,” the “Mad Money” host said, referring to the following six firms: JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs.

    “It’s clear from these numbers that the economy’s in a much better place than we thought it was, and so are these old dog institutions that are learning new tricks.”

    Cramer’s comments came after all three major U.S. equity indexes finished the week in positive territory. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average, which jumped 1.1% in Friday’s session, turned in its best weekly performance since June. The 30-stock Dow now sits 0.9% below its all-time high.

    The broad S&P 500 advanced 0.75% on Friday, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 0.5%.

    The three major averages are positive so far in October after a rough September, which is historically a bad month for the stocks and was again this year.

    Now, investors are turning to corporate earnings to get insights into many issues they’ve been worried about for weeks such as the strength of the U.S. economy, staffing problems, inflation and supply chains.

    Cramer, who’s been cautious on the market, has turned more constructive in recent days, an attitude that he’s carrying into next week when Netflix, United Airlines, Tesla and Union Pacific, among other firms, are set to report earnings.

    “Because the banks report first and because they’re so important to the economy, they set the tone for the entire earnings season,” Cramer said. “Their strength is a huge reason why the market rallied so hard for the last couple days.”

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  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens Wednesday, Oct. 13

    5 things to know before the stock market opens Wednesday, Oct. 13

    2021-10-13 04:55:27

    Here are the most important news, trends and analysis that investors need to start their trading day:

    1. Wall Street looks to avoid a four-session losing streak

    Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), October 12, 2021.

    Brendan McDermid | Reuters

    2. Supply chain woes, rising costs may make for rocky earnings



    Supply chain issues, labor shortages and higher energy prices are making this a very difficult quarter to model. As of Tuesday, 22 companies that are early reporters beat estimates by 11%, according to Nick Raich, CEO of The Earnings Scout. While this is above the traditional beat of 3% to 5%, it’s far below the average of prior quarters this year, including the roughly 18% beat for the second quarter. Third-quarter estimates, which had been rising steadily for months, have stopped in the last few weeks.

    3. September consumer prices remain high



    The 10-year Treasury yield rose to about 1.6% on Wednesday after the government reported that the consumer price index in September rose 5.4% from last year. Core CPI, which excludes the food and energy sectors, rose 4% from last year. Both were basically in-line with estimates and similar to the prior month’s year over year increases. The Federal Reserve at 2 p.m. ET releases minutes from its policy meeting in September when central bankers indicated they expect to begin reducing monthly asset purchases “soon,” but did not say when.

    4. White House aims to help key West Coast ports stay open 24/7

    Cargo ships filled with containers dock at the Port of Los Angeles on September 28, 2021 in Los Angeles, California.

    Frederic J. Brown | AFP | Getty Images


    President Joe Biden will unveil a plan Wednesday to try to ease West Coast port backlogs by expanding round-the-clock operations. The Port of Los Angeles is expected to announce a shift to 24/7 operations, following a similar transition by the Port of Long Beach in California last month. Central to this plan to ease supple chain disruptions are commitments by some of the nation’s leading retailers and shippers, including FedEx, UPS, Walmart and Home Depot, to increase overnight and off-hours operations at the ports to get the goods to market. Together, the ports account for about 40% of the shipping containers entering the United States.

    5. U.S. to reopen land borders in November for fully vaccinated

    Flags of the U.S., Canada and Mexico fly next to each other in Detroit, Michigan, U.S. August 29, 2018.

    Rebecca Cook | Reuters


    The U.S. said Wednesday it will reopen its land borders to nonessential travel next month, ending a 19-month freeze due to Covid as the nation moves to require all international visitors to be vaccinated. Vehicle, rail and ferry travel between the U.S. and Canada and Mexico has been largely restricted to essential travel since the earliest days of the pandemic. The latest move follows last month’s announcement that the U.S. will end country-based travel bans for air travel and instead require Covid shots for foreign nationals seeking to enter by plane.

    — The Associated Press contributed to this report. Follow all the market action like a pro on CNBC Pro. Get the latest on the pandemic with CNBC’s coronavirus coverage.

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