While much of the discussion surrounding the AUKUS Agreement has focused on its geopolitical implications and the cost of nuclear submarine purchases, little attention has been given to the potential risks posed by these submarines to the civilian population in Australia’s home ports.
The details regarding the risks of nuclear-powered submarines in Australia are shrouded in military secrecy. Some information has been officially released, but much of it is based on inference and conjecture, leading to uncertainty. Nonetheless, it is important to understand the potential dangers involved.
One example of the risks associated with nuclear-powered facilities is seen in the situation surrounding the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine. Although the plant is no longer generating power, it remains vulnerable to shelling or bombing, and there is an ongoing risk of reactor cooling water pump failure. The recent breaching of the Kakhovka Dam has further exacerbated the situation, with only three months of water for cooling remaining. This highlights the catastrophic consequences that can occur from a nuclear reactor failure.
To the northwest of Zaporizhzhia lies the site of the Chernobyl Reactor No. 4, which experienced a meltdown on April 26, 1986. The explosion and subsequent fire released radioactive material and fission products into the air, contaminating the surrounding area and spreading across Northern Europe. The fallout from Chernobyl, particularly Caesium-137, affected approximately 150,000 square kilometers of Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia. Even today, 2600 square kilometers remain unsafe for human habitation and agriculture, and will continue to be so for centuries to come.
While the loss of life at Chernobyl was relatively low compared to other nuclear disasters, it resulted in significantly higher levels of radioactive pollution. In fact, Chernobyl created 400 times more radioactive contamination than the bomb detonated over Hiroshima in 1945. The use of Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) reactors by the US Navy in their nuclear-powered warships, including the submarines Australia plans to acquire under the AUKUS Agreement, further raises concerns. HEU reactors utilize weapons-grade uranium enriched to above 93% Uranium-235, and they can last for up to 33 years without refueling.
In contrast, low enriched uranium reactors, which require fuel replacement every 5 to 10 years, undergo regular inspections for flaws and deterioration. Unfortunately, these inspections are not conducted for HEU reactors. This lack of oversight raises questions about the long-term safety and reliability of nuclear-powered submarines in Australia’s home ports.
The Virginia Class submarines, which Australia plans to purchase, are equipped with S9G nuclear reactors rated at 210 Mega Watts thermal (MWt). These reactors generate heat energy through the fissioning of Uranium-235, which is then used to create steam to power the turbines and propel the submarine. Each kilogram of U-235 generates 940 MW days of heat, meaning that at full power, a 210MWt reactor would require approximately 81.5 kg of U-235 per year.
Given that approximately 6% of the fission products produced in the reactor are Caesium-137, it is essential to consider the potential environmental and health impacts of such a powerful nuclear reactor in close proximity to civilian populations. The production of Caesium-137 is influenced by the reactor’s operating capacity, with lower capacity resulting in less production.
In conclusion, the AUKUS Agreement’s focus on geopolitical implications and cost overlooks the potential risks that nuclear-powered submarines pose to the civilian population in Australia. Lessons from past nuclear accidents, such as Chernobyl, highlight the catastrophic consequences of a nuclear reactor failure. The use of Highly Enriched Uranium reactors without regular inspections raises concerns about long-term safety. Therefore, it is crucial to carefully evaluate the potential dangers before implementing such a significant defense acquisition.